Per Pro Football Reference, home playoff underdogs of four or more points are 10-0 vs. the spread over the last 50 years. The Patriots aren’t playing against history, obviously, but I do think the Broncos’ defense can keep it close. And Stidham will be rusty, obviously, but he can’t be worse than C.J. Stroud was last week.

Almost four months to the day after the Baltimore Ravens choked up a lead to the Buffalo Bills to close Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, the Ravens did the exact same thing against the Pittsburgh Steelers to pull the curtain down on Week 18. Now, it’s on ...